0xdBF23895584f58d312879A88D4b4182d6811a58B-1774796922705
0xdbf23895584f58d312879a88d4b4182d6811a58b
- Realised P&L
- $-46.54
- Volume
- $7.7k
- Markets traded
- 406
- Open portfolio
- $43.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded406
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.875 | $12.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? · No | 0.920 | 0.905 | $11.80 | −$0.20 |
| Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31? · Yes | 0.494 | 0.645 | $11.75 | +$2.75 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.585 | $7.50 | −$2.50 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.591 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET · Up | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election? · Yes | 0.729 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.41at 0.800Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$8.68at 0.615Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
- +$5.94at 0.585Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
- +$5.71at 0.741Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
- +$5.68at 0.356Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 21:25 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.7799999891 | $10.00 |
| 09-16 21:24 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | SELL | 0.9 | $10.48 |
| 09-15 07:50 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.8589999913 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 07:43 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $12.00 |
| 09-13 17:10 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-13? | SELL | 0.92 | $3.28 |
| 09-10 21:26 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-13? | BUY | 0.84 | $3.00 |
| 09-09 17:44 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-09-10? | BUY | 0.8899999733 | $3.00 |
| 09-06 07:11 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999995 | $20.00 |
| 09-05 21:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | SELL | 0.968 | $12.76 |
| 09-05 15:53 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-05? | SELL | 0.981 | $5.84 |
| 09-05 08:04 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | SELL | 0.42 | $3.69 |
| 09-01 22:29 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-05? | BUY | 0.8399999395 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 22:24 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | BUY | 0.91 | $8.00 |
| 09-01 22:24 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30? | BUY | 0.9199999356 | $12.00 |
| 08-30 09:47 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999302 | $12.00 |