0x24CdA331801f07E9FbBdA28D99a1bc5C03f2C654-1720939720847
0xdbe004e579e933637b4a7157a6bb14948d9e32cd
- Realised P&L
- $306.09
- Volume
- $104.6k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.055 | $539.18 | −$49.01 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.044 | $341.76 | −$14.93 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.055 | $275.00 | −$75.00 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.060 | $119.58 | −$29.93 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? · Yes | 0.139 | 0.070 | $15.05 | −$14.90 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.145 | $6.55 | −$4.25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET · Down | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will Aly Richards win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.703 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$167.22 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET · Up | 0.213 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$400.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET · Up | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.436Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
- +$1.0kat 0.173Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
- +$872.32at 0.141Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
- +$508.43at 0.199Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET
- +$481.34at 0.242Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 06:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET | BUY | 0.0183671363 | $25.00 |
| 08-12 06:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET | BUY | 0.011183847 | $23.36 |
| 08-12 06:53 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $25.00 |
| 08-12 06:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET | BUY | 0.0820029589 | $100.00 |
| 08-12 06:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET | BUY | 0.1490855344 | $100.00 |
| 08-12 06:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET | BUY | 0.1474241319 | $100.00 |
| 08-12 06:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET | BUY | 0.1796554385 | $100.00 |
| 08-12 06:45 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET | BUY | 0.322133202 | $100.00 |
| 08-12 06:42 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | BUY | 0.1172511637 | $100.00 |
| 08-12 06:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | BUY | 0.2071453844 | $100.00 |
| 08-12 06:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | BUY | 0.3299999978 | $100.00 |
| 08-12 06:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | BUY | 0.4182179619 | $100.00 |
| 08-12 06:29 | Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | SELL | 0.999 | $499.50 |
| 08-11 05:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | BUY | 0.0790112511 | $88.13 |
| 08-11 05:36 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | BUY | 0.0899999934 | $11.87 |