0xDbBc0a6D4d1490ADA6f08572D31a3CebdB3Cc072-1788224806798
0xdbbc0a6d4d1490ada6f08572d31a3cebdb3cc072
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $60.6k
- Markets traded
- 656
- Open portfolio
- $10.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded656
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Vikings win the season series against the Lions during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.191 | $5.14 | −$4.31 |
| Will Brett Whiteley win the next Latrobe mayoral election? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.655 | $1.95 | −$0.16 |
| Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.25% (LOW) by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.930 | $1.43 | +$0.29 |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.265 | $0.80 | −$0.70 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AL-07 House election by 15%-20%? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.081 | $0.65 | −$1.75 |
| Will the season series between the Bengals and Steelers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · No | 0.590 | 0.190 | $0.26 | −$0.55 |
| Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Tennessee be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.051 | $0.13 | −$0.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$69.52at 0.340Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on September 3?
- +$45.36at 0.280Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on September 2?
- +$44.90at 0.289Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on September 3?
- +$44.51at 0.506Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on September 2?
- +$44.40at 0.260Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on September 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 19:18 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on September 30? | SELL | 0.21 | $5.67 |
| 09-08 19:18 | Will the Vikings win the season series against the Lions during the 2026-27 NFL regular season? | SELL | 0.08 | $1.68 |
| 09-08 16:02 | Will Russia enter Preobrazhenka by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.38 | $5.70 |
| 09-08 15:54 | Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $1.53 |
| 09-08 15:49 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.44 | $2.20 |
| 09-08 15:49 | Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.44 | $16.72 |
| 09-08 15:49 | Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $16.45 |
| 09-08 15:49 | Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $15.40 |
| 09-08 15:39 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on September 10? | SELL | 0.53 | $5.30 |
| 09-08 15:32 | Will Amcha Yisrael win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? | SELL | 0.5 | $17.00 |
| 09-08 15:22 | Will Ukraine re-enter Kolodiazi by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $6.75 |
| 09-08 15:03 | Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.10 |
| 09-08 14:08 | Will CZ post 20-39 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $8.93 |
| 09-08 13:59 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.45 | $12.50 |
| 09-08 13:44 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 10? | SELL | 0.29 | $0.55 |