timmolu
0xdb92aca642467a1db728150f2cd6769c49d7bb30
- Realised P&L
- $-486.90
- Volume
- $68.6k
- Markets traded
- 1,496
- Open portfolio
- $79.07
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,496
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026? · No | 0.545 | 0.545 | $60.08 | −$0.06 |
| Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.460 | 0.245 | $12.74 | −$11.18 |
| Will the Bank of England make no change to the Bank Rate at the February meeting? · No | 0.660 | 0.625 | $6.25 | −$0.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$73.07at 0.123Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland?
- +$48.57at 0.174Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa?
- +$30.59at 0.144Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?
- +$24.70at 0.270Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
- +$20.17at 0.092Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 19:25 | Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the June meeting? | SELL | 0.46 | $8.59 |
| 11-01 16:18 | Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31? | SELL | 0.52 | $36.92 |
| 11-01 01:31 | Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31? | SELL | 0.61 | $4.45 |
| 11-01 01:30 | Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%? | SELL | 0.335 | $5.19 |
| 11-01 01:30 | Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the cash rate target by 25 bps at the March meeting? | SELL | 0.497 | $9.94 |
| 11-01 01:30 | Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $8.64 |
| 11-01 01:30 | Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by November 30? | SELL | 0.31 | $3.39 |
| 10-31 23:00 | Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the cash rate target at the March meeting? | SELL | 0.52 | $0.30 |
| 10-31 22:48 | Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the March meeting? | SELL | 0.38 | $7.60 |
| 10-31 22:39 | Will Team Spirit win PARI Universe? | SELL | 0.361 | $7.22 |
| 10-31 10:02 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET | SELL | 0.7981032413 | $13.30 |
| 10-30 11:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET | SELL | 0.55 | $9.48 |
| 10-30 11:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET | BUY | 0.58 | $9.99 |
| 10-30 09:33 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET | SELL | 0.77 | $7.70 |
| 10-30 09:31 | Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET | BUY | 0.58 | $5.80 |