0xdb8980657706e78c16ec790485c4bd4c15b7f9de
- Realised P&L
- $-1.13
- Volume
- $190.77
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $5.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.740 | 0.943 | $2.56 | +$0.55 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.885 | $1.70 | +$0.70 |
| Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.230 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.31at 0.701Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
- +$3.66at 0.359SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 20?
- +$2.82at 0.422Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
- +$1.78at 0.360Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026?
- +$1.68at 0.440Will Trump say "Tough Cookie" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 19:47 | Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 14:08 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 04:40 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 23:42 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 12:46 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 20:39 | Will Andy Burnham say "Nuclear" during the next PMQ? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 12:39 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199998548 | $1.00 |
| 08-31 04:38 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 08-30 08:33 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 08-29 20:24 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 08-27 09:31 | Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August? | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 08-27 01:31 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August? | BUY | 0.3699998631 | $1.00 |
| 08-25 05:00 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 08-24 20:58 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 23:44 | Will Iran target an Arab country by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599998704 | $1.00 |