Frangula
0xdb6d338a1e8e4953b33cb3ad6db6ab5a6ad1f343
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $58.4k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $350.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-10-10? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.455 | $227.50 | −$2.50 |
| Spread: East Tennessee State (-10.5) · East Tennessee State | 0.430 | 0.490 | $122.90 | +$15.10 |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.005 | $0.23 | −$1.17 |
| Curitiba: Gustavo Heide vs Hernan Casanova · Hernan Casanova | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$63.45 |
| Knicks vs. Celtics · Knicks | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.63 |
| Warsaw: Marcelina Podlinska vs Vendula Valdmannova · Marcelina Podlinska | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$248.74 |
| Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · Figueiredo | 0.214 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.55 |
| Set Handicap: Sierra (-1.5) vs Ito (+1.5) · Sierra | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$124.59 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: 1st Half O/U 1.5 · Under | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$140.81 |
| UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Du Plessis | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$248.40 |
| Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? · No | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$371.74at 0.637Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5)
- +$298.83at 0.584Set Handicap: Boyer (-1.5) vs Ilagan (+1.5)
- +$79.37at 0.572Bianca Andreescu vs. Anna Blinkova: Total Sets O/U 2.5
- +$76.28at 0.946Will Trump say "North Carolina" 20 or more during Greensboro, NC rally?
- +$74.06at 0.543Will Trump say "border" 20 or more during Greensboro, NC rally?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 15:46 | Spread: East Tennessee State (-10.5) | BUY | 0.4297950687 | $107.80 |
| 10-10 11:58 | Will CD Santa Clara win on 2026-10-10? | BUY | 0.46 | $230.00 |
| 10-09 10:37 | Rockets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5 | BUY | 0.6199999996 | $119.00 |
| 10-09 10:16 | Bianca Andreescu vs. Anna Blinkova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.5599999987 | $103.92 |
| 09-27 08:21 | Curitiba: Gustavo Heide vs Hernan Casanova | BUY | 0.3499999986 | $63.45 |
| 09-19 14:38 | Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens | BUY | 0.5253636646 | $100.00 |
| 09-09 12:25 | Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. ŠK Slovan Bratislava: 1st Half O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.3699999996 | $140.81 |
| 09-04 23:46 | Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? | BUY | 0.1699999973 | $47.40 |
| 08-25 04:41 | Set Handicap: Boyer (-1.5) vs Ilagan (+1.5) | BUY | 0.5799999958 | $49.19 |
| 08-25 04:38 | Set Handicap: Boyer (-1.5) vs Ilagan (+1.5) | BUY | 0.5737755906 | $195.60 |
| 08-25 04:25 | Set Handicap: Boyer (-1.5) vs Ilagan (+1.5) | BUY | 0.5672678246 | $166.10 |
| 08-25 04:24 | Game Spread: Boyer (-1.5) vs Ilagan (+1.5) | SELL | 0.5314086403 | $173.69 |
| 08-25 04:21 | Game Spread: Boyer (-1.5) vs Ilagan (+1.5) | BUY | 0.5676056049 | $185.52 |
| 08-12 00:08 | Set Handicap: Sierra (-1.5) vs Ito (+1.5) | BUY | 0.48 | $124.59 |
| 08-10 14:52 | Todi: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Federico Bondioli | SELL | 0.5 | $404.42 |