0xf906fCed062deB9bfFf23117a62c1026366Ef594-1772382664950
0xdb407ca8ad2797893e8f4c3bca6c3d71c2eecbe2
- Realised P&L
- $35.44
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $237.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting? · Yes | 0.949 | 0.964 | $51.09 | +$0.80 |
| Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.928 | $51.04 | +$0.44 |
| Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%? · No | 0.959 | 0.938 | $49.69 | −$1.14 |
| Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%? · No | 0.910 | 0.902 | $49.64 | −$0.41 |
| Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? · No | 0.961 | 0.975 | $37.15 | +$0.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.24at 0.940Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
- +$3.24at 0.940Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31?
- +$3.19at 0.940Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting?
- +$3.14at 0.941Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.12at 0.940Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 20:33 | Will Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.95 | $26.60 |
| 08-03 20:30 | Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%? | BUY | 0.91 | $50.05 |
| 08-02 19:48 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%? | BUY | 0.959 | $50.83 |
| 08-01 18:02 | Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting? | BUY | 0.949 | $50.30 |
| 08-01 18:01 | Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.92 | $50.60 |
| 07-26 19:48 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $50.76 |
| 07-25 21:10 | Israeli forces enter Choukine by July 31? | BUY | 0.978105 | $50.86 |
| 07-25 21:06 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | BUY | 0.94 | $50.76 |
| 07-23 05:45 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.974 | $50.65 |
| 07-23 05:43 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.97 | $50.44 |
| 07-23 05:40 | Will Carlos Vila Nova win the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? | SELL | 0.998 | $52.89 |
| 07-20 07:15 | Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 21? | BUY | 0.94 | $48.88 |
| 07-19 12:31 | Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.4%? | BUY | 0.98 | $49.98 |
| 07-18 20:24 | Will Carlos Vila Nova win the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? | BUY | 0.951 | $50.40 |
| 07-18 19:48 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.949 | $50.30 |