0xf906fCed062deB9bfFf23117a62c1026366Ef594-1772382664950
0xdb407ca8ad2797893e8f4c3bca6c3d71c2eecbe2
- Realised P&L
- $-128.59
- Volume
- $2.7k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $65.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.305 | $65.84 | −$37.78 |
| Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? · No | 0.946 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.54 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$108.00 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.46at 0.955Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
- +$4.32at 0.920Will Iran target a Arab country on August 20, 2026?
- +$3.74at 0.931Andrew Tate released from custody by August 31, 2026?
- +$3.37at 0.934Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026?
- +$3.12at 0.940Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 21?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 13:47 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting? | BUY | 0.48 | $103.62 |
| 09-11 07:27 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.17 | $34.00 |
| 09-03 05:59 | Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.969 | $84.30 |
| 08-27 05:49 | Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9543769231 | $49.63 |
| 08-26 19:36 | Andrew Tate released from custody by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.928 | $50.11 |
| 08-19 16:36 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 08-19 11:27 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 08-18 07:50 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $49.68 |
| 08-18 07:50 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $47.63 |
| 08-16 20:06 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 08-14 07:40 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $49.47 |
| 08-13 14:02 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.9471811321 | $50.20 |
| 08-13 07:46 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $49.92 |
| 08-11 13:32 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more? | BUY | 0.9488296296 | $51.24 |
| 08-11 13:30 | Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more? | SELL | 0.935132 | $4.68 |