iguassu
0xdb3022bafaaa4755e4973bb8c0b040641976722b
- Realised P&L
- $-87.39
- Volume
- $10.9k
- Markets traded
- 240
- Open portfolio
- $38.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded240
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.00at 0.250Will Donald Trump say the N-word during Israel President events on December 29?
- +$28.61at 0.334Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
- +$18.82at 0.520Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$18.17at 0.300U.S. strike on Nigeria by December 31, 2025?
- +$15.05at 0.378Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" or "Venezuela" 15+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 11:27 | Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.70 |
| 10-07 11:27 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 in October? | BUY | 0.7899999968 | $20.00 |
| 10-07 11:23 | Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? | BUY | 0.6 | $18.00 |
| 10-04 13:42 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5099999906 | $20.00 |
| 10-04 13:32 | Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro? | BUY | 0.0459999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 13:27 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.0715965523 | $2.00 |
| 10-04 12:51 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 12:51 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%? | BUY | 0.1 | $17.00 |
| 01-22 14:04 | Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25? | SELL | 0.951519368 | $18.67 |
| 01-18 11:53 | Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25? | BUY | 0.8763367065 | $17.20 |
| 01-17 23:09 | Will Trump and Robert Fico not shake hands? | SELL | 0.0722184906 | $3.83 |
| 01-17 23:09 | Will Trump and Robert Fico not shake hands? | BUY | 0.9189999723 | $12.29 |
| 01-17 23:08 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $12.24 |
| 01-17 11:41 | Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $620b on January 31? | SELL | 0.9221814286 | $12.91 |
| 01-08 19:11 | U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $5.25 |