Ampolo42
0xdb1511ff7a80b9e77d2c74919910ed7d4bff3390
- Realised P&L
- $155.47
- Volume
- $21.7k
- Markets traded
- 152
- Open portfolio
- $47.46
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded152
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$164.71at 0.013Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1?
- +$62.47at 0.255Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?
- +$48.95at 0.021Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?
- +$30.38at 0.769Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13?
- +$20.96at 0.492Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 13:00 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2199999974 | $10.00 |
| 10-19 12:16 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2899999968 | $10.00 |
| 10-13 08:47 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-14? | BUY | 0.759999998 | $60.00 |
| 10-13 08:46 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.7599999985 | $100.00 |
| 09-28 09:56 | Will Republic of Ireland win the UEFA EURO 2028? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 08:34 | Plovdiv 4: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Calvin Hemery | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 16:42 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.988 | $33.37 |
| 08-28 10:28 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.8879999974 | $30.00 |
| 08-28 10:04 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 10:04 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 14:31 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299998986 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 14:31 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 14:31 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999032 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 14:29 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999539 | $10.00 |
| 08-13 10:48 | Will Dana White attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | SELL | 0.011330142 | $0.34 |