christopherwilliams-105
0xdb04a4e847922040393f4464608fe662274e1ecc
- Realised P&L
- $-94.80
- Volume
- $22.4k
- Markets traded
- 77
- Open portfolio
- $25.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded77
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration66.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on September 18? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.545 | $25.69 | +$0.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.08at 0.998Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31?
- +$0.56at 0.300Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?
- +$0.55at 0.977Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?
- +$0.50at 0.410Bitcoin all time high by January 31?
- +$0.46at 0.990Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 14:41 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? | BUY | 0.9859999313 | $13.06 |
| 01-30 15:06 | Will Chainlink hit $17 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $14.71 |
| 01-30 14:17 | Will Chainlink hit $21 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $10.80 |
| 01-30 12:37 | Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $58.15 |
| 12-30 09:46 | Will Russia capture Slovainsk in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999982 | $14.96 |
| 12-29 19:13 | Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | BUY | 0.997 | $16.65 |
| 12-29 19:04 | Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $12.85 |
| 12-29 18:56 | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $52.79 |
| 10-30 21:01 | Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.13 |
| 10-30 20:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? | BUY | 0.9989999908 | $20.79 |
| 10-30 17:43 | Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.71 |
| 09-29 09:31 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.93 |
| 09-29 03:59 | Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $19.72 |
| 09-29 03:51 | Russian strike on Poland by September 30? | BUY | 0.9929999999 | $19.29 |
| 09-29 01:14 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.89 |