WeatherHK2
0xdadbf9e1df1b8d7a184a0d6ab9c83b2337b61870
- Realised P&L
- $32.8k
- Volume
- $1.78M
- Markets traded
- 1,493
- Open portfolio
- $70.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,493
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration49.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.6kat 0.010Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?
- +$1.5kat 0.044Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 4?
- +$1.3kat 0.020Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 31?
- +$1.2kat 0.121Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 30?
- +$794.74at 0.048Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 15:31 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.5089795918 | $24.94 |
| 09-17 15:30 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.998 | $54.98 |
| 09-17 03:51 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.98 | $7.84 |
| 09-16 14:32 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.98 | $49.00 |
| 09-12 00:44 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on September 12? | SELL | 0.01 | $1.06 |
| 09-11 14:30 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 12? | SELL | 0.1205420054 | $44.48 |
| 09-11 10:00 | Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on September 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 09-11 09:59 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on September 13? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 09-11 09:59 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 13? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 09-11 09:59 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 13? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.94 |
| 09-10 23:08 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 11? | BUY | 0.96 | $96.00 |
| 09-10 15:09 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.16 | $4.78 |
| 09-10 14:35 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 10? | SELL | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 09-10 13:45 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.058015873 | $2.63 |
| 09-10 06:31 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 10? | BUY | 0.3 | $2.63 |