0xda5b6cd7866200dadfb86431d1b79cac6e2e1510
0xda5b6cd7866200dadfb86431d1b79cac6e2e1510
- Realised P&L
- $183.22
- Volume
- $4.7k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $76.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Atlanta Falcons win the 2026 NFC South? · Yes | 0.207 | 0.217 | $26.27 | +$1.27 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.056 | $17.09 | −$7.85 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.282 | 0.203 | $14.43 | −$5.57 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.100 | $13.45 | +$3.45 |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.984 | 0.988 | $5.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will United States win on 2026-07-06? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.09 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.492 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$275.21at 0.500Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01?
- +$41.64at 0.540US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$22.48at 0.694France vs. England: O/U 2.5
- +$19.22at 0.510Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?
- +$-2.37at 0.414France vs. England: Both Teams to Score in Second Half
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 03:03 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0739999995 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 03:01 | Will Atlanta Falcons win the 2026 NFC South? | BUY | 0.2069999998 | $25.00 |
| 09-16 15:16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 16:54 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0809999999 | $24.94 |
| 09-15 13:40 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1299999995 | $25.00 |
| 07-22 15:58 | Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.4919999963 | $50.00 |
| 07-18 21:38 | France vs. England: Both Teams to Score in Second Half | SELL | 0.39 | $24.38 |
| 07-18 15:12 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4099999954 | $25.00 |
| 07-18 15:10 | France vs. England: Both Teams to Score in Second Half | BUY | 0.4 | $25.00 |
| 07-18 15:09 | France vs. England: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6799999984 | $50.00 |
| 07-06 14:30 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.05 | $2.50 |
| 07-05 17:12 | Will United States win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.3799999952 | $25.09 |
| 07-01 20:21 | Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | SELL | 0.9537644444 | $85.84 |
| 07-01 03:11 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0309999985 | $20.00 |
| 06-14 18:39 | Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | BUY | 0.5488673253 | $115.28 |