PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

totalost801

0xda39194d075955d34aea74e557470ae6e44eb4aa

Realised P&L
$-1.5k
Volume
$187.1k
Markets traded
2,563
Open portfolio
$21.06

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded2,563
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration21.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration87.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? · Yes0.6400.515$18.42−$4.47
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? · Yes0.5700.665$2.33+$0.33
Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026? · Yes0.0430.005$0.27−$1.86
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.0290.001$0.04−$2.09
Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · No0.1040.000$0.00−$12.60
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · Yes0.2680.000$0.00−$6.00
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September? · Yes0.0110.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes? · No0.0660.000$0.00−$2.00
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · Yes0.0150.000$0.00−$7.60
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0270.000$0.00−$9.81
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET · Up0.0300.000$0.00−$1.00
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes0.1380.000$0.00−$18.97
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET · Down0.1110.000$0.00−$9.00
Olbia: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald · Mackenzie McDonald0.4100.000$0.00−$2.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET · Up0.0300.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-17 10:17Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?BUY0.64$22.89
10-15 21:58Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ETBUY0.02$1.00
10-15 21:57Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ETBUY0.0599999988$1.00
10-15 21:56Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ETBUY0.1499999925$1.00
10-15 21:56Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ETBUY0.2699999784$1.00
10-15 21:56Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ETBUY0.3699999593$1.00
10-13 16:25Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?BUY0.2799999904$6.97
10-12 14:25Olbia: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonaldBUY0.4099999816$2.00
10-12 14:25LoL: Maryville University vs Disguised (BO5) - LCS Promotion PlayoffsBUY0.3799999924$1.00
10-12 04:53Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ETBUY0.04$1.00
10-12 04:53Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ETBUY0.0299999994$1.00
10-12 04:53Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ETBUY0.329999967$3.00
10-12 04:52Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ETBUY0.3299998944$1.00
10-12 04:52Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ETBUY0.2399999808$1.00
10-12 04:52Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ETBUY0.2899999884$1.00