qdduo
0xda37af2c4fae7bc3861687caa06cad7b9e99f8cc
- Realised P&L
- $108.94
- Volume
- $11.2k
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $6.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.395 | 0.355 | $3.55 | −$0.40 |
| Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.040 | $3.35 | −$3.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.50at 0.124Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?
- +$22.48at 0.237Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
- +$15.04at 0.092Stripe IPO before 2027?
- +$6.95at 0.150Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
- +$4.44at 0.088Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-19 23:09 | Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.36 | $3.28 |
| 07-10 22:30 | Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.28 |
| 07-10 22:28 | Over $1B raised on Coinbase in 2026? | SELL | 0.0548100048 | $1.14 |
| 07-06 07:26 | Maduro guilty of all counts? | SELL | 0.14 | $4.31 |
| 06-28 22:57 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2 | $0.65 |
| 06-25 19:23 | Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $1.50 |
| 06-25 19:23 | Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $1.45 |
| 06-25 19:21 | Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $1.45 |
| 06-22 08:03 | Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | SELL | 0.34 | $0.49 |
| 06-21 19:34 | Maduro guilty of all counts? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.14 |
| 06-21 08:27 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.22 | $0.97 |
| 06-21 07:56 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | SELL | 0.23 | $3.32 |
| 06-19 08:24 | Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.13 | $0.26 |
| 06-19 05:14 | Maduro guilty of all counts? | SELL | 0.12 | $3.87 |
| 06-18 21:58 | Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.20 |