Celestinienne
0xda18ddb2e4a2f6275918f26b89cb7d5aabfb39be
- Realised P&L
- $3.58
- Volume
- $447.37
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $4.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)81.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Microsoft AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? · No | 0.988 | 0.948 | $4.80 | −$0.20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? · No | 0.473 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.89at 0.830Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
- +$4.31at 0.922South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5
- +$3.07at 0.936Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$2.61at 0.710Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
- +$0.67at 0.900Will Trump post "Nasty" on Truth Social this week?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-16 03:34 | Will Microsoft AI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.9879999984 | $5.00 |
| 07-06 02:23 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9338243078 | $45.00 |
| 06-24 15:39 | South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.92 | $51.00 |
| 06-24 15:39 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.957 | $51.88 |
| 06-11 03:17 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999856 | $45.00 |
| 06-11 03:17 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | SELL | 0.91 | $18.40 |
| 06-04 06:07 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.9399999921 | $19.00 |
| 05-18 01:34 | Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 19? | BUY | 0.9669999992 | $18.00 |
| 05-18 01:34 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | SELL | 0.85 | $18.14 |
| 05-16 02:03 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | BUY | 0.8899999995 | $19.00 |
| 05-16 01:59 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 16? | SELL | 0.999 | $17.98 |
| 05-15 01:07 | Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 16? | BUY | 0.96 | $17.28 |
| 05-15 01:06 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.7089086957 | $16.30 |
| 05-13 18:37 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.928 | $21.34 |
| 04-20 14:24 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | BUY | 0.71 | $6.39 |