Arcnig
0xd9f46299e60bbf1096c1d2b051ee4ce5de520105
- Realised P&L
- $-614.27
- Volume
- $16.3k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $82.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.28at 0.690Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?
- +$10.17at 0.597Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?
- +$2.22at 0.871Will Trump say "Pentagon" 6+ times during 9-11 memorial event?
- +$2.06at 0.660Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 7+ times during address to UN General Assembly on September 23?
- +$1.41at 0.680Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during address to UN General Assembly on September 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-14 10:42 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 16:41 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.1299999902 | $10.00 |
| 08-23 16:50 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.0699999874 | $5.00 |
| 08-23 16:49 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.1399999953 | $24.00 |
| 08-23 10:27 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.1399999888 | $10.00 |
| 07-21 21:53 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.0316605538 | $5.50 |
| 07-21 21:52 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.0599999946 | $10.00 |
| 07-21 21:52 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.1 | $33.00 |
| 05-24 10:58 | Xi Jinping out by June 30? | BUY | 0.0108211769 | $17.00 |
| 05-03 15:51 | Xi Jinping out by June 30? | SELL | 0.0189091872 | $17.15 |
| 04-06 10:28 | Xi Jinping out by June 30? | BUY | 0.0219999989 | $19.95 |
| 12-28 13:01 | Israel strikes Iran before 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.88 |
| 12-28 13:01 | NATO x Russia military clash in 2025? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.30 |
| 12-28 13:01 | Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.68 |
| 12-28 13:01 | China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.35 |