PolyBot

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Traders

Arcnig

0xd9f46299e60bbf1096c1d2b051ee4ce5de520105

Realised P&L
$-614.27
Volume
$16.3k
Markets traded
28
Open portfolio
$82.84

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded28
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration80.7% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample15 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration80.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? · Yes0.1170.095$66.48$15.52
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? · Yes0.0630.045$10.71$4.29
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? · Yes0.0320.033$5.65+$0.15
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? · Yes0.1870.000$0.00$4.67
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July? · No0.5100.000$0.00$10.20
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? · No0.3300.000$0.00$14.81
Xi Jinping out by June 30? · Yes0.0110.000$0.00$17.00
Will India strike Pakistan by November 30? · Yes0.1030.000$0.00$97.00
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? · No0.5110.000$0.00$21.00
Will Trump say "Globalist" or "Globalism" during address to UN General Assembly on September 23? · No0.5400.000$0.00$2.00
Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during address to UN General Assembly on September 23? · No0.6400.000$0.00$2.00
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by July 11? · Yes0.3400.000$0.00$5.00
Will Trump say "Twin Towers" during 9-11 memorial event? · Yes0.4400.000$0.00$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-14 10:42Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?BUY0.1$5.00
09-01 16:41Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?BUY0.1299999902$10.00
08-23 16:50Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?BUY0.0699999874$5.00
08-23 16:49Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?BUY0.1399999953$24.00
08-23 10:27Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?BUY0.1399999888$10.00
07-21 21:53Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December?BUY0.0316605538$5.50
07-21 21:52Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?BUY0.0599999946$10.00
07-21 21:52Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?BUY0.1$33.00
05-24 10:58Xi Jinping out by June 30?BUY0.0108211769$17.00
05-03 15:51Xi Jinping out by June 30?SELL0.0189091872$17.15
04-06 10:28Xi Jinping out by June 30?BUY0.0219999989$19.95
12-28 13:01Israel strikes Iran before 2026?SELL0.01$0.88
12-28 13:01NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?SELL0.002$0.30
12-28 13:01Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025?SELL0.001$0.68
12-28 13:01China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?SELL0.001$0.35