perlo34
0xd9e7df2d3ae388baef7ff8c6ef8ef5017bb07197
- Realised P&L
- $-48.74
- Volume
- $905.37
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $320.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? · Yes | 0.949 | 0.956 | $201.28 | +$1.28 |
| Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? · Yes | 0.819 | 0.865 | $52.80 | +$2.80 |
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? · No | 0.879 | 0.735 | $41.81 | −$8.19 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.735 | $18.61 | −$1.39 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.780 | 0.925 | $4.26 | +$0.67 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.641 | 0.179 | $1.40 | −$3.60 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.28 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? · No | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.00at 0.724Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$11.30at 0.450Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$7.06at 0.650Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$6.75at 0.610Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
- +$3.24at 0.710US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 09:38 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.71 | $30.86 |
| 07-25 09:32 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.428 | $17.98 |
| 07-25 09:08 | Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.9494310295 | $200.00 |
| 07-25 08:59 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999968 | $20.00 |
| 07-15 12:05 | Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? | BUY | 0.8788993824 | $50.00 |
| 07-15 11:25 | Will Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8191808182 | $50.00 |
| 04-16 12:21 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.640999955 | $5.00 |
| 04-15 12:30 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | SELL | 0.23 | $0.67 |
| 04-14 12:42 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | SELL | 0.43 | $1.29 |
| 04-14 12:42 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? | SELL | 0.1 | $0.58 |
| 04-13 12:17 | Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? | BUY | 0.48 | $2.70 |
| 04-13 12:17 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.60 |
| 04-13 12:17 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | BUY | 0.71 | $4.15 |
| 04-12 13:16 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $7.93 |
| 04-09 12:23 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY | 0.61 | $10.55 |