0xd9b3934b539f98a34bd1ef351ff3bb0f87f8b09d
0xd9b3934b539f98a34bd1ef351ff3bb0f87f8b09d
- Realised P&L
- $11.37
- Volume
- $330.46
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $4.49
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micron say "Nvidia" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.780 | $4.22 | +$0.33 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.410 | 0.045 | $0.26 | −$2.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.26at 0.305Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March?
- +$6.34at 0.217Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?
- +$4.69at 0.480Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $175 on April 1?
- +$3.91at 0.390Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?
- +$3.78at 0.361Will it rain in Denver, CO on August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 08:30 | Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on April 10? | BUY | 0.85 | $4.30 |
| 04-10 08:06 | Will Google (GOOGL) close above $315 on April 10? | BUY | 0.829999998 | $4.14 |
| 04-09 08:04 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on April 9? | BUY | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 04-09 07:59 | Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $220 on April 9? | BUY | 0.7599999838 | $3.75 |
| 04-08 08:13 | Will Trump post "NATO" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.236753223 | $4.12 |
| 04-08 08:08 | Will Trump post "JD" or "Vance" on Truth Social this week? | BUY | 0.4499999421 | $2.72 |
| 04-08 08:02 | Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12) | BUY | 0.85 | $4.25 |
| 04-08 07:56 | Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7699998666 | $4.33 |
| 04-08 07:52 | Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | BUY | 0.73 | $3.57 |
| 04-06 00:27 | Will WD-40 (WDFC) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4699999249 | $3.19 |
| 04-06 00:21 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 on April 6? | BUY | 0.4979999478 | $3.68 |
| 04-05 00:30 | Will Google (GOOGL) close above $295 on April 6? | BUY | 0.5899999834 | $4.62 |
| 04-04 00:26 | Will Trump say "World Cup" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | BUY | 0.7299999696 | $4.80 |
| 04-04 00:22 | Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.09 |
| 04-04 00:17 | Will Trump say "Plastic Egg" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | BUY | 0.6699999574 | $4.25 |