Retippppaksksk
0xd98e5c8d8de5921fac5b24f92ef913acdee69bb3
- Realised P&L
- $261.82
- Volume
- $40.6k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $308.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.265 | $308.56 | −$541.44 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET · Up | 0.649 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET · Up | 0.426 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · No | 0.529 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$141.86 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET · Down | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$130.00 |
| Solana Up or Down - February 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET · Up | 0.283 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET · Down | 0.805 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11AM ET · Up | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.186AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
- +$160.81at 0.757Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
- +$156.53at 0.549Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?
- +$122.32at 0.730Ethereum Up or Down on July 6?
- +$101.86at 0.847SSI public model released by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 04:08 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999991 | $130.00 |
| 09-12 04:07 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299980531 | $850.00 |
| 09-02 10:48 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.893 | $500.00 |
| 08-12 04:16 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.7444783878 | $87.09 |
| 08-12 04:14 | SSI public model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8415926397 | $560.00 |
| 08-12 04:11 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.745999999 | $95.00 |
| 08-12 04:10 | Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? | SELL | 0.9658491141 | $748.43 |
| 08-10 14:39 | Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? | BUY | 0.7885052974 | $301.78 |
| 08-10 14:38 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | SELL | 0.8196015078 | $152.20 |
| 08-10 14:38 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | SELL | 0.8328416216 | $154.08 |
| 08-10 13:35 | Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? | BUY | 0.7124383573 | $259.39 |
| 08-10 13:35 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | SELL | 0.8800283333 | $264.01 |
| 08-10 13:34 | Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? | BUY | 0.6999999964 | $19.66 |
| 08-10 13:33 | AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? | SELL | 0.89 | $17.80 |
| 08-10 13:33 | Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? | SELL | 0.31 | $2.26 |