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0xd98296478ea001d3cb835d5c5a9b8372becd5ac5
- Realised P&L
- $1.0k
- Volume
- $25.3k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $202.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.040 | $202.57 | −$197.43 |
| Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? · Yes | 0.248 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$900.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? · Up | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.251Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
- +$763.49at 0.630Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?
- +$234.11at 0.467England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$25.62at 0.790Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3?
- +$-596.87at 0.184Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 17:38 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4099999988 | $200.00 |
| 07-15 19:11 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4549999993 | $200.00 |
| 06-21 12:16 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.007 | $23.50 |
| 06-03 10:22 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.1299480202 | $200.00 |
| 06-03 10:21 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.0820200585 | $300.00 |
| 06-02 13:50 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.0679973385 | $100.00 |
| 06-01 14:05 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2199999996 | $400.00 |
| 11-09 01:35 | Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.3k |
| 07-07 13:42 | Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2480906099 | $900.00 |
| 06-04 02:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? | BUY | 0.2099999964 | $40.00 |
| 06-03 04:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | SELL | 0.8713502893 | $275.62 |
| 06-03 03:48 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | BUY | 0.8707258082 | $100.00 |
| 06-03 02:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $107K on June 3? | BUY | 0.7445284652 | $150.00 |
| 06-01 22:20 | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | SELL | 0.946 | $1.4k |
| 06-01 21:52 | Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? | SELL | 0.8148099459 | $1.2k |