0x7199ac8636ffcba1af3d21c10eb8a23c5b4930aa
0xd980f9444a890f4624d38d66063633c84bebf637
- Realised P&L
- $-3.2k
- Volume
- $75.0k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $9.50
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.142 | 0.007 | $9.50 | −$170.50 |
| Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.6k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.357Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
- +$713.48at 0.150Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024?
- +$314.82at 0.213Israel military response against Iran in October?
- +$9.26at 0.291Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
- +$0.74at 0.862Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 13:34 | Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1421587597 | $180.00 |
| 07-25 07:28 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.26 | $180.52 |
| 07-23 13:24 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.3899999977 | $65.35 |
| 07-23 11:54 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.43 | $14.57 |
| 07-20 16:49 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.2599999993 | $176.00 |
| 07-16 23:29 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.32 | $3.00 |
| 07-16 21:49 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.3099999989 | $171.00 |
| 06-14 21:22 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? | SELL | 0.0566870563 | $163.36 |
| 06-14 21:21 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? | SELL | 0.066 | $6.94 |
| 06-14 20:24 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? | BUY | 0.2597715472 | $12.51 |
| 06-14 18:40 | Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? | BUY | 0.418163644 | $5.00 |
| 05-24 20:48 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8619998777 | $4.65 |
| 10-29 19:02 | Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024? | BUY | 0.51 | $306.32 |
| 10-29 10:03 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? | SELL | 0.1947870944 | $1.4k |
| 10-18 16:37 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? | BUY | 0.14 | $256.79 |