0xd97167a45396f2217ded39d5aeda5d0debdb75c9
- Realised P&L
- $2.71
- Volume
- $43.17
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $17.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.993 | $3.19 | +$1.10 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.997 | $3.16 | +$1.07 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · Yes | 0.700 | 1.000 | $2.98 | +$0.89 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.815 | $2.18 | +$0.09 |
| Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $144 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.510 | $2.13 | +$0.04 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.595 | $2.11 | +$0.02 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.240 | 0.185 | $1.61 | −$0.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
- +$-0.01at 0.502Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$-0.04at 0.510New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
- +$-0.04at 0.510New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 04:33 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.2399999219 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 20:24 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $144 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 10:00 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $132 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999242 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 21:10 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.7799999701 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 07:54 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5899999153 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 22:45 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.6999999665 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 13:09 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.6499997045 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 04:05 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999689 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 20:03 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 12:02 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 20:10 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |