0xd9443fee78baad5bdf2ae3fe693ad8856acde471
0xd9443fee78baad5bdf2ae3fe693ad8856acde471
- Realised P&L
- $-7.86
- Volume
- $205.79
- Markets traded
- 113
- Open portfolio
- $5.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded113
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · Yes | 0.460 | 1.000 | $2.17 | +$1.17 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.965 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%? · No | 0.730 | 1.000 | $1.37 | +$0.37 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.435 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.64at 0.330Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E35?
- +$3.43at 0.400Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E37?
- +$2.21at 0.319Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
- +$1.67at 0.382Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?
- +$1.41at 0.422Spread: Beijing Guoan (-1.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 05:07 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 18:12 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 07:49 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 23:48 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 14:34 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 06:28 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 22:26 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 02:03 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 17:59 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 21:58 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.3079999285 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:19 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:56 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.203999991 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:24 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:46 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:45 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |