0xd8e5d96b54394c545d930fc31646e9eaf847b808
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $185.13
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? · Yes | 0.174 | 0.191 | $158.07 | +$14.28 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.155 | $27.06 | +$0.32 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$124.30 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$353.29 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? · Yes | 0.116 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$239.26 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.1k |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.82 |
| Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13? · Yes | 0.887 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$528.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.7kat 0.475MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$2.3kat 0.252Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$1.4kat 0.809Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
- +$1.2kat 0.475Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
- +$981.83at 0.782Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 20:50 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.4590037515 | $611.76 |
| 11-01 20:50 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.4616924786 | $434.35 |
| 11-01 20:49 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.4627894214 | $736.10 |
| 11-01 19:29 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.506 | $22.76 |
| 11-01 18:32 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5034556096 | $1.8k |
| 11-01 18:31 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.48 | $657.52 |
| 10-27 20:04 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.29 | $636.29 |
| 10-27 20:00 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.2512442037 | $5.5k |
| 10-26 17:05 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.06 |
| 10-26 13:22 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $46.74 |
| 10-26 13:21 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.7818812749 | $3.0k |
| 10-26 11:56 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 20-26? | BUY | 0.73 | $58.40 |
| 10-26 11:28 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0035456069 | $353.37 |
| 10-25 22:05 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $56.32 |
| 10-25 22:02 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6448847926 | $1.4k |