0xd8CB248F9452C8D9df2C903B3290B950A79aA008-1772368298026
0xd8cb248f9452c8d9df2c903b3290b950a79aa008
- Realised P&L
- $-2.5k
- Volume
- $115.1k
- Markets traded
- 142
- Open portfolio
- $17.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded142
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.018 | $6.20 | −$7.95 |
| Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.332 | 0.009 | $5.84 | −$209.95 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Oregon in 2026? · Yes | 0.492 | 0.198 | $5.83 | −$8.65 |
| Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.002 | $0.07 | −$0.56 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? · Yes | 0.091 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.68 |
| Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$91.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? · Yes | 0.403 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.66 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? · No | 0.354 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
| Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.41 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$631.82at 0.590Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14?
- +$411.49at 0.804Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
- +$398.45at 0.504Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET
- +$393.55at 0.528Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
- +$369.75at 0.589Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-16 06:09 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3508571429 | $24.56 |
| 04-16 05:31 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.359 | $18.03 |
| 04-16 05:29 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.359 | $3.59 |
| 04-16 05:27 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.354 | $111.48 |
| 04-16 05:26 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.354 | $354.00 |
| 04-15 21:26 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8279252543 | $321.23 |
| 04-15 21:23 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8119999995 | $642.88 |
| 04-15 21:11 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7969999995 | $167.20 |
| 04-15 21:00 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7769999997 | $383.80 |
| 04-15 20:53 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.319875 | $255.90 |
| 04-15 20:51 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.2406 | $24.06 |
| 04-15 20:37 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.212 | $5.13 |
| 04-15 20:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.26 | $636.84 |
| 04-15 19:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.2699999997 | $557.49 |
| 04-15 18:59 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $557.49 |