NihilisticMeerkat
0xd8cae792b3d84d6888080401423e973337287229
- Realised P&L
- $8.4k
- Volume
- $1.98M
- Markets traded
- 259
- Open portfolio
- $8.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded259
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.473 | 0.445 | $6.6k | −$419.49 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.445 | $1.8k | −$60.00 |
| Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.637 | 0.130 | $246.07 | −$959.03 |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala · Jessica Pegula | 0.810 | 0.805 | $80.50 | −$0.50 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · Yes | 0.918 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$917.99 |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$352.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$33.7kat 0.540Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$29.2kat 0.366Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?
- +$10.4kat 0.739Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?
- +$7.8kat 0.688Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$7.5kat 0.821Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 19:43 | The Memphis Classic (Doubles): Hunter/Krawczyk vs Chong/Hozumi | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 07-29 19:42 | Samsun (Doubles): Betov/Singh vs Kirci/Kirkin | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |
| 07-29 19:37 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.753 | $67.77 |
| 07-29 19:37 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.752 | $45.12 |
| 07-29 19:37 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.7329259259 | $197.89 |
| 07-29 19:21 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $14.9k |
| 07-26 10:19 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.805 | $4.7k |
| 07-26 10:18 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.805 | $7.1k |
| 07-26 10:16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.804 | $158.03 |
| 07-25 16:42 | Boxing: Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga | BUY | 0.09 | $117.00 |
| 07-19 21:18 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.705506725 | $705.51 |
| 07-19 21:17 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.715 | $715.00 |
| 07-18 20:01 | Exact Score: France 3 - 0 England? | BUY | 0.05 | $15.00 |
| 07-18 20:00 | Exact Score: France 2 - 0 England? | BUY | 0.07 | $196.00 |
| 07-16 15:09 | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.031 | $0.46 |