superjacks
0xd89e1b31c44788d927eda37e07e90cebaee39c91
- Realised P&L
- $-78.91
- Volume
- $2.0k
- Markets traded
- 164
- Open portfolio
- $35.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded164
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration3.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections? · No | 0.969 | 0.998 | $4.99 | +$0.14 |
| Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 16, 2026? · No | 0.970 | 0.994 | $4.97 | +$0.12 |
| Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.987 | $4.93 | +$0.09 |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · No | 0.968 | 0.978 | $4.89 | +$0.05 |
| Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election? · No | 0.978 | 0.948 | $4.74 | −$0.15 |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 82% to 83%? · No | 0.730 | 0.825 | $4.13 | +$0.47 |
| Will Meta’s Q3 headcount be above 74000? · No | 0.800 | 0.795 | $3.98 | −$0.03 |
| Danaher (DHR) Q3 non-GAAP core revenue growth 4.5% to 6%? · No | 0.690 | 0.675 | $3.38 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.20at 0.960Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 15, 2026?
- +$0.20at 0.961US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
- +$0.19at 0.961Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s US Open?
- +$0.19at 0.961Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?
- +$0.19at 0.962Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 00:07 | Will Meta’s Q3 headcount be above 74000? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 10-14 18:05 | Danaher (DHR) Q3 non-GAAP core revenue growth 4.5% to 6%? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 10-11 00:30 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 82% to 83%? | BUY | 0.73 | $3.65 |
| 10-02 16:37 | Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.85 |
| 10-01 12:22 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.968 | $4.84 |
| 10-01 08:09 | Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections? | BUY | 0.969 | $4.84 |
| 10-01 08:07 | Will "Digger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 17m? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.80 |
| 10-01 06:32 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.85 |
| 10-01 06:32 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.967 | $4.83 |
| 10-01 06:26 | Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.85 |
| 10-01 06:08 | Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.85 |
| 10-01 06:03 | Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.80 |
| 09-30 18:26 | Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? | BUY | 0.968 | $4.84 |
| 09-30 18:08 | Will "Babylon - Taylor Swift" be the #2 US song this week? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.80 |
| 09-29 20:56 | Critical Discord Incident by September 30? | BUY | 0.97 | $4.85 |