0xd88c4bafdb2cf60ed0c4650db1088cf4505f25e7
- Realised P&L
- $-9.18
- Volume
- $477.00
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $32.49
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration40.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.60at 0.120U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$1.11at 0.777Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?
- +$0.75at 0.985Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
- +$0.32at 0.180Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
- +$0.20at 0.080Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 06:48 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $7.83 |
| 07-06 13:16 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.056 | $1.18 |
| 06-13 09:40 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.65 |
| 06-11 07:31 | Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | BUY | 0.359 | $1.79 |
| 06-10 19:47 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.72 | $3.60 |
| 06-08 10:47 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.96 |
| 06-04 08:41 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | BUY | 0.841 | $4.21 |
| 05-26 03:44 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.924 | $7.39 |
| 05-24 00:27 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.12 |
| 05-24 00:26 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $2.52 |
| 04-27 22:49 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.63 | $4.41 |
| 04-27 22:49 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.38 | $4.56 |
| 04-16 10:32 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $6.16 |
| 04-16 10:32 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.04 |
| 04-13 14:41 | Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.92 |