PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xd88c4bafdb2cf60ed0c4650db1088cf4505f25e7

Realised P&L
$-9.18
Volume
$477.00
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$32.49

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration40.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample12 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? · No0.8700.750$6.75$1.08
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No0.6300.925$6.47+$2.06
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · No0.7200.920$4.60+$1.00
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? · No0.8410.872$4.36+$0.15
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1680.085$3.31$3.25
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? · Yes0.4150.115$1.50$3.91
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0290.045$1.32+$0.48
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes0.1400.075$1.05$0.91
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes0.3800.075$0.90$3.66
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? · Yes0.0560.036$0.76$0.42
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · Yes0.1500.055$0.60$1.04
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? · Yes0.3590.091$0.46$1.34
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · Yes0.0800.029$0.41$0.71

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-17 06:48Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?BUY0.87$7.83
07-06 13:16Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?BUY0.056$1.18
06-13 09:40Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY0.15$1.65
06-11 07:31Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?BUY0.359$1.79
06-10 19:47Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.72$3.60
06-08 10:47Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?BUY0.14$1.96
06-04 08:41Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?BUY0.841$4.21
05-26 03:44Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?BUY0.924$7.39
05-24 00:27Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?BUY0.08$1.12
05-24 00:26Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.21$2.52
04-27 22:49Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.63$4.41
04-27 22:49Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.38$4.56
04-16 10:32U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY0.88$6.16
04-16 10:32U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY0.12$2.04
04-13 14:41Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.82$4.92