0xd889d5134e80fa68d8e23a074eeee2f04e4a653f
0xd889d5134e80fa68d8e23a074eeee2f04e4a653f
- Realised P&L
- $12.66
- Volume
- $537.95
- Markets traded
- 172
- Open portfolio
- $8.98
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded172
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · Yes | 0.460 | 1.000 | $2.17 | +$1.17 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.965 | $1.40 | +$0.40 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%? · No | 0.730 | 1.000 | $1.37 | +$0.37 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.495 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? · No | 0.800 | 0.795 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.745 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.435 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$6.63at 0.237Walmart (WMT) Q2 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 3%-4.5%?
- +$6.00at 0.250Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 21:36 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 13:19 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 05:19 | Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 18:22 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 07:48 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 23:48 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 14:33 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 06:31 | Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 22:28 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:41 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:19 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 18:58 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 10:56 | Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? | BUY | 0.6099997255 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 02:56 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 18:55 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |