bacs2000
0xd8867be278a60dd41589f114d8d8f4e509825b12
- Realised P&L
- $-83.43
- Volume
- $31.7k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $811.17
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? · Yes | 0.775 | 0.930 | $270.09 | +$45.09 |
| Will Green Party (MP) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes? · Yes | 0.868 | 0.983 | $169.97 | +$19.97 |
| Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? · No | 0.599 | 0.921 | $153.86 | +$53.86 |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.883 | 1.000 | $113.24 | +$13.24 |
| Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be 82-84%? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.655 | $91.15 | −$18.85 |
| Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.785 | $12.87 | +$2.87 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$802.60at 0.728Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$550.62at 0.839Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?
- +$123.42at 0.793Spread: Spain (-2.5)
- +$94.23at 0.802Will SPD win at least 9% of all valid second votes?
- +$29.96at 0.922Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-13 21:10 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.9362018285 | $100.00 |
| 09-13 21:08 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.8299999993 | $100.00 |
| 09-13 20:29 | Will Green Party (MP) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.8712871272 | $50.00 |
| 09-13 20:27 | Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the sixth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.609999986 | $10.00 |
| 09-13 20:16 | Will Green Party (MP) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.8656302971 | $100.00 |
| 09-13 20:14 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be 82-84%? | BUY | 0.8174671809 | $50.00 |
| 09-13 20:12 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be 82-84%? | BUY | 0.8 | $20.00 |
| 09-13 20:11 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be 82-84%? | BUY | 0.7700378281 | $20.00 |
| 09-13 20:09 | Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.396039604 | $25.00 |
| 09-13 20:06 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be 82-84%? | BUY | 0.7399999911 | $20.00 |
| 09-13 20:04 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.8826678194 | $100.00 |
| 09-13 19:57 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | BUY | 0.5989401048 | $100.00 |
| 09-06 20:17 | Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne? | BUY | 0.9299999995 | $52.00 |
| 09-06 20:17 | Will SPD win at least 9% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.9224809195 | $100.00 |
| 09-06 20:17 | Will SPD win at least 9% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.9224048638 | $100.00 |