10gwei
0xd85098cba036a409690d829367632ccb949059db
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $156.4k
- Markets traded
- 182
- Open portfolio
- $468.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded182
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.774 | 0.425 | $468.55 | −$384.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.182Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy
- +$105.20at 0.060US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?
- +$81.61at 0.545Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?
- +$69.00at 0.383US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$62.50at 0.371US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-29 16:46 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | SELL | 0.006 | $3.00 |
| 04-28 13:02 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $7.50 |
| 04-24 12:59 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 04-24 12:58 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 04-17 08:17 | Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.033 | $3.30 |
| 04-17 08:13 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $3.20 |
| 04-15 21:58 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.0275589253 | $14.18 |
| 04-15 21:57 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.0295090956 | $94.00 |
| 04-13 14:34 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.1 | $60.00 |
| 04-12 08:23 | US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $99.60 |
| 04-08 15:49 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.003 | $10.20 |
| 04-06 08:52 | Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on April 6? | BUY | 0.14 | $0.61 |
| 04-01 08:55 | EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 03-24 16:01 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | SELL | 0.06 | $18.00 |
| 03-24 16:00 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.013 | $6.50 |