Strarper
0xd849fbe04a3b6d4861ad1b0bd6be7b75679459d6
- Realised P&L
- $2.5k
- Volume
- $957.5k
- Markets traded
- 182
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded182
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.365 | 0.245 | $1.2k | −$575.63 |
| Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.075 | $660.85 | −$1.8k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.944 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$238.83 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$822.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.841Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
- +$434.54at 0.898Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
- +$366.30at 0.970Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
- +$329.47at 0.980Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
- +$254.58at 0.717Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 18:21 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $192.00 |
| 10-22 17:27 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $55.83 |
| 10-20 16:54 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $4.9k |
| 10-19 10:47 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.4k |
| 10-18 16:38 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 10-18 16:38 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 20? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.98 |
| 10-15 14:50 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.6k |
| 10-11 17:57 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.3k |
| 10-10 09:48 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.3k |
| 10-10 09:48 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $568.96 |
| 10-06 13:57 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $320.39 |
| 10-06 12:11 | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.0k |
| 08-18 18:39 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $9.80 |
| 08-05 21:45 | Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $78.00 |
| 08-05 21:34 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31? | BUY | 0.68 | $20.40 |