0xd82F93324C0Db0f85240718733F00e37746C0274-1770110433087
0xd82f93324c0db0f85240718733f00e37746c0274
- Realised P&L
- $76.48
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $138.97
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.540 | 0.605 | $84.02 | +$9.03 |
| Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.150 | $41.00 | −$0.79 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.405 | $8.10 | +$3.30 |
| Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.090 | $4.50 | −$17.50 |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.022 | $1.35 | −$0.69 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026? · No | 0.097 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.91 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$76.98at 0.533Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$6.60at 0.669Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$4.30at 0.570Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
- +$-0.07at 0.064Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
- +$-0.14at 0.155Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 11:34 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 06-29 21:01 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 06-26 12:20 | Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.1399999816 | $6.39 |
| 06-26 12:18 | Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.1299999911 | $11.40 |
| 05-05 21:35 | Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.56 | $5.60 |
| 05-05 21:31 | Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | SELL | 0.1535 | $3.07 |
| 05-05 09:59 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026? | BUY | 0.097 | $2.91 |
| 05-05 09:58 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 05-05 06:56 | Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY | 0.15 | $3.00 |
| 05-04 22:07 | Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.034 | $2.04 |
| 05-04 20:45 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.19 | $9.50 |
| 05-04 20:45 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.065 | $2.60 |
| 05-03 22:01 | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.062 | $2.48 |
| 05-03 18:58 | Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.2 | $8.00 |
| 05-03 18:53 | Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? | BUY | 0.16 | $0.80 |