PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xd82F93324C0Db0f85240718733F00e37746C0274-1770110433087

0xd82f93324c0db0f85240718733f00e37746c0274

Realised P&L
$76.48
Volume
$1.4k
Markets traded
13
Open portfolio
$138.97

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded13
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration87.6% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample6 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration60.5% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.5400.605$84.02+$9.03
Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy? · Yes0.1530.150$41.00$0.79
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.2400.405$8.10+$3.30
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026? · Yes0.4400.090$4.50$17.50
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0340.022$1.35$0.69
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026? · No0.0970.000$0.00$2.91
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? · Yes0.0050.000$0.00$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-01 11:34Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL0.999$19.98
06-29 21:01Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?BUY0.005$1.00
06-26 12:20Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?BUY0.1399999816$6.39
06-26 12:18Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?BUY0.1299999911$11.40
05-05 21:35Will Starmer say "Ukraine" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?BUY0.56$5.60
05-05 21:31Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?SELL0.1535$3.07
05-05 09:59Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?BUY0.097$2.91
05-05 09:58Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?BUY0.24$4.80
05-05 06:56Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?BUY0.15$3.00
05-04 22:07Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.034$2.04
05-04 20:45Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?SELL0.19$9.50
05-04 20:45Starmer out by May 15, 2026?SELL0.065$2.60
05-03 22:01Starmer out by May 15, 2026?BUY0.062$2.48
05-03 18:58Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?BUY0.2$8.00
05-03 18:53Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?BUY0.16$0.80