hgfrfj
0xd810ce3c9450d093a4d7f6be843a05bf83cd34db
- Realised P&L
- $1.42
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $2.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.001 | $1.38 | −$12.41 |
| Will "Hate That I Made You Love Me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 24? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $1.09 | −$0.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.20at 0.006Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$0.57at 0.642Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury
- +$0.02at 0.980SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
- +$0.02at 0.988Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.991Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 10:43 | Will "Hate That I Made You Love Me - Ariana Grande" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of October 24? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.09 |
| 09-15 06:12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.03 |
| 09-04 16:25 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.19 |
| 08-27 14:23 | Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury | BUY | 0.6299997754 | $1.01 |
| 07-02 21:52 | Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? | BUY | 0.4249998878 | $1.42 |
| 06-09 19:20 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY | 0.9909999971 | $1.03 |
| 06-09 19:15 | Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.08 |
| 06-09 19:12 | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.04 |
| 06-09 19:12 | Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99799901 | $1.00 |
| 06-09 19:12 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | BUY | 0.9789999883 | $1.00 |
| 06-09 19:12 | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | BUY | 0.9909999971 | $1.03 |
| 06-09 19:11 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.04 |
| 06-09 19:11 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 06-09 19:11 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.02 |
| 06-09 19:10 | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.00 |