Manhohoho
0xd800d6f7b67ba44fd88d098fea9277a0cdcfc256
- Realised P&L
- $-5.1k
- Volume
- $829.2k
- Markets traded
- 969
- Open portfolio
- $4.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded969
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? · No | 0.930 | 0.895 | $1.4k | −$55.79 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October? · No | 0.890 | 0.865 | $1.4k | −$41.02 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October? · No | 0.940 | 0.915 | $818.01 | −$22.35 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? · No | 0.954 | 0.955 | $663.73 | +$0.53 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? · No | 0.856 | 0.885 | $191.08 | +$6.21 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$772.17at 0.736Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$680.00at 0.820Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?
- +$452.59at 0.880Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
- +$450.00at 0.918Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?
- +$439.94at 0.685Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 08:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? | BUY | 0.96 | $283.20 |
| 10-01 08:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? | BUY | 0.95 | $38.00 |
| 10-01 08:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,500 in October? | BUY | 0.95 | $342.00 |
| 10-01 08:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | BUY | 0.87 | $56.25 |
| 10-01 08:16 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 10-01 08:16 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October? | BUY | 0.93 | $1.5k |
| 10-01 08:15 | Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October? | BUY | 0.89 | $1.5k |
| 10-01 08:15 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October? | BUY | 0.85 | $124.32 |
| 10-01 08:15 | Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in October? | BUY | 0.94 | $840.36 |
| 09-25 16:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | BUY | 0.8983057006 | $80.84 |
| 09-25 16:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September? | BUY | 0.961 | $144.15 |
| 09-25 16:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September? | BUY | 0.96 | $144.00 |
| 09-25 16:04 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | BUY | 0.902 | $27.06 |
| 09-23 14:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | SELL | 0.981 | $210.83 |
| 09-23 14:57 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | SELL | 0.981 | $1.7k |