Aeghtny
0xd7e6e71885a177881af724a65ddb96ae5ec40484
- Realised P&L
- $-19.68
- Volume
- $11.6k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $7.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)17.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 September 28-October 4? · No | 0.995 | 0.994 | $7.25 | −$0.01 |
| Celtics vs. Hawks · Hawks | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.00 |
| Nets vs. Celtics · Nets | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.02at 0.997Will Solana dip to $60 April 13-19?
- +$0.02at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.999Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
- +$-0.01at 0.999Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 07:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.9949999198 | $7.26 |
| 07-13 02:16 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.9979999143 | $8.55 |
| 06-15 09:09 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.34 |
| 06-15 09:06 | Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.992 | $8.89 |
| 05-26 02:50 | Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9929999998 | $8.90 |
| 04-23 06:17 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.35 |
| 04-14 07:14 | Will Solana dip to $60 April 13-19? | BUY | 0.997 | $7.36 |
| 03-14 05:41 | Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.998 | $14.67 |
| 03-03 02:13 | Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.69 |
| 02-27 09:01 | Nets vs. Celtics | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 01-19 05:15 | Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.973 | $52.69 |
| 01-17 08:20 | Celtics vs. Hawks | BUY | 0.4099999894 | $12.00 |
| 01-17 08:17 | Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.991 | $316.26 |
| 01-17 05:50 | Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $316.58 |
| 01-17 05:44 | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.996 | $376.02 |