Orollnik
0xd7c32f23cc8b0116d93b5adfe4577bd402930964
- Realised P&L
- $289.15
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $36.08
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raptors vs. Knicks · Raptors | 0.408 | 0.355 | $17.40 | −$2.60 |
| Valencia vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv · Maccabi Tel Aviv | 0.260 | 0.255 | $9.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.275 | $8.87 | −$1.13 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Fenerbahce vs. Virtus Bologna · Virtus Bologna | 0.183 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv · Maccabi Tel Aviv | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit & Noam Run on Same List? · Yes | 0.183 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Thunder vs. Hawks · Thunder | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Israel Election: Yashar & Together Run on Same List? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on August 22? · Yes | 0.216 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.02at 0.133Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?
- +$58.82at 0.365Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$42.79at 0.196Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
- +$39.60at 0.208Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?
- +$35.17at 0.367Knicks vs. Spurs
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 18:03 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $10.00 |
| 10-14 18:01 | Pistons vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.4 | $20.00 |
| 10-14 18:00 | Valencia vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv | BUY | 0.2599999964 | $10.00 |
| 10-12 07:52 | Raptors vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.4079398974 | $20.00 |
| 10-12 07:51 | Thunder vs. Hawks | BUY | 0.3000533285 | $20.00 |
| 10-12 07:44 | Valencia vs. Olympiacos B.C. | BUY | 0.6173300444 | $40.00 |
| 09-24 06:41 | ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Maccabi Tel Aviv | BUY | 0.64 | $40.00 |
| 09-24 06:40 | Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. FC Bayern Munchen | BUY | 0.2599999964 | $10.00 |
| 09-24 06:40 | Fenerbahce vs. Virtus Bologna | BUY | 0.1833799791 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 11:52 | Israel Election: Otzma Yehudit & Noam Run on Same List? | BUY | 0.1826922782 | $5.00 |
| 09-05 11:45 | Israel Election: Yashar & Together Run on Same List? | BUY | 0.0687569653 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 05:25 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.3799999833 | $10.00 |
| 08-28 04:52 | Jordan vs. Philippines | BUY | 0.5 | $20.00 |
| 08-22 07:01 | Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on August 22? | BUY | 0.2157592811 | $10.00 |
| 08-11 20:36 | Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |