0xd741e6d21a6f19075726c821935b183a3e6ef524
0xd741e6d21a6f19075726c821935b183a3e6ef524
- Realised P&L
- $-78.86
- Volume
- $646.64
- Markets traded
- 99
- Open portfolio
- $7.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded99
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.520 | 1.000 | $1.92 | +$0.92 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.977 | $1.66 | +$0.66 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.555 | $1.29 | +$0.29 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.865 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? · No | 0.660 | 0.655 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? · No | 0.790 | 0.750 | $0.95 | −$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.36at 0.306Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5
- +$6.08at 0.235Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5
- +$4.55at 0.235Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5
- +$4.51at 0.306Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5
- +$3.85at 0.327South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 17:39 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:34 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:35 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2909999252 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:34 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 17:49 | Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 09:40 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 7? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 01:40 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 05:34 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899997404 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 21:33 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 07:07 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 22:54 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 14:51 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 06:50 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 18:37 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 18:34 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |