PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

dffc

0xd7388980a5c9a06b067116351ff00053db39d07e

Realised P&L
$333.54
Volume
$22.1k
Markets traded
146
Open portfolio
$2.93

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded146
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026? · Yes0.0540.004$2.93−$32.08
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? · Yes0.5100.000$0.00−$51.00
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 30+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? · Yes0.4550.000$0.00−$25.05
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? · Yes0.2350.000$0.00−$23.50
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? · Yes0.6000.000$0.00−$119.99
Will the announcers say "Blood" or "Bloody" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2? · Yes0.4500.000$0.00−$4.50
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? · Yes0.3400.000$0.00−$34.00
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" win Best Compilation Soundtrack For Visual Media at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards? · Yes0.0970.000$0.00−$29.00
Will Trump say "Australia" while addressing the nation on December 17? · Yes0.4300.000$0.00−$21.50
Will Trump say "Miracle" during the 2026 State of the Union address? · No0.2200.000$0.00−$1.89
Will Trump say "ISIS" or "Syria" while addressing the nation on December 17? · Yes0.5800.000$0.00−$23.20
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie this week? · Yes0.1940.000$0.00−$13.60
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? · Yes0.6200.000$0.00−$62.00
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5) · Paris Saint-Germain0.3700.000$0.00−$20.00
Will Apple say "Streaming" during earnings call? · Yes0.4800.000$0.00−$24.69

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-12 18:48Spread: Paris Saint-Germain (-1.5)BUY0.3699999887$20.00
08-12 18:48Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12?BUY0.5999999976$50.00
06-29 10:25Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY0.66$19.80
06-18 21:27Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to ScoreBUY0.5199999979$30.00
06-17 18:38Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?BUY0.6499999935$20.00
06-17 16:32Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to ScoreBUY0.4099999959$30.00
06-14 21:50Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?BUY0.5899999992$30.00
06-14 19:37Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 CornersBUY0.7766487606$30.00
06-14 19:37Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to ScoreBUY0.5499999972$30.00
06-05 14:46Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.73$7.30
06-05 14:36Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.79$23.70
06-05 14:34Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.73$14.60
06-05 14:33Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.59$11.80
05-11 22:11Starmer out by May 15, 2026?BUY0.728$21.84
05-11 14:55Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?BUY0.748272$37.41