RiskyRetriever
0xd6f12b5a032dd7fd9ef3804cb0548538bf751abb
- Realised P&L
- $296.14
- Volume
- $68.7k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $44.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.042 | $44.27 | −$23.35 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$45.00 |
| Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.48 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.30 |
| Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$111.00at 0.570Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- +$72.01at 0.071Xi Jinping out before 2027?
- +$56.08at 0.156Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
- +$48.00at 0.680Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?
- +$33.48at 0.893Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-12 13:45 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.215 | $60.20 |
| 07-06 16:40 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.013 | $44.20 |
| 07-01 09:23 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.976 | $929.15 |
| 06-22 20:12 | Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? | BUY | 0.002 | $5.00 |
| 06-22 20:10 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.131 | $78.60 |
| 06-20 14:47 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.136 | $9.52 |
| 06-20 14:47 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.196 | $15.68 |
| 06-20 14:46 | Starmer out by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $32.26 |
| 06-20 12:17 | Starmer out by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0987108014 | $6.80 |
| 06-19 22:46 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.966870042 | $920.46 |
| 06-19 13:42 | Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.03 | $4.62 |
| 06-18 16:34 | Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? | BUY | 0.76 | $38.00 |
| 06-10 18:14 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.053 | $37.10 |
| 05-24 14:25 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.019 | $45.60 |
| 05-24 14:23 | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SELL | 0.875 | $39.63 |