1df56ghb1fd
0xd6e196429e4f34c808a9936aa5c369223d8b03a7
- Realised P&L
- $411.64
- Volume
- $28.6k
- Markets traded
- 134
- Open portfolio
- $476.43
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded134
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$508.05at 0.550Maple Leafs vs. Islanders
- +$21.10at 0.078Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
- +$7.60at 0.120Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election by between 10% and 20%?
- +$6.91at 0.645Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$5.57at 0.220Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-04 01:14 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? | BUY | 0.96 | $116.77 |
| 06-03 14:14 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? | BUY | 0.976 | $330.86 |
| 06-03 14:13 | Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.80 |
| 06-03 14:11 | Will Ciena Q2 Networking Platforms revenue be above $1.25B? | SELL | 0.13 | $2.60 |
| 06-03 14:10 | Will Mauro Gattinoni win the 2026 Lecco mayoral election? | SELL | 0.16 | $3.20 |
| 06-03 14:09 | Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? | SELL | 0.2 | $4.00 |
| 06-03 14:09 | Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? | SELL | 0.09 | $1.62 |
| 06-03 14:09 | Will Anna De Gaio win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? | SELL | 0.2 | $4.00 |
| 06-03 14:08 | Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? | SELL | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 06-03 14:00 | Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 1.5% and 3%? | SELL | 0.14 | $2.80 |
| 06-03 14:00 | Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? | SELL | 0.29 | $5.80 |
| 06-03 13:58 | Will Curvance launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.468376 | $9.37 |
| 06-03 13:58 | Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch | SELL | 0.64 | $12.79 |
| 06-03 13:58 | Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch | SELL | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 06-03 10:16 | Will Trump praise Allah by June 30? | SELL | 0.883135 | $17.66 |