PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

A-REAL-N

0xd6abb774ba000302bf3925480f496bcda44c86bf

Realised P&L
$-180.88
Volume
$2.4k
Markets traded
45
Open portfolio
$81.67

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-7.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded45
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration29.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample36 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes0.8400.755$15.10−$1.70
Will Vox win 66-70 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? · No0.8400.705$14.10−$2.70
Will BuzzFeed (BZFD) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes0.3900.135$13.50−$25.50
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-11 House election by 25%-30%? · No0.7800.728$9.46−$0.68
Will Yelp (YELP) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes0.8200.835$8.35+$0.15
Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings? · No0.1700.245$6.96+$2.13
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Morelos Congress election? · No0.3300.215$4.30−$2.30
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3100.195$3.90−$2.30
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.75 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4500.186$3.72−$5.28
Will Smash win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP? · Yes0.0500.033$1.63−$0.88
Will Jan Holásek be the next Mayor of Hradec Králové? · Yes0.0700.033$0.66−$0.74
Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings? · No0.3670.000$0.00−$47.11
Will Rivian (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings? · No0.7700.000$0.00−$38.50
Will ExxonMobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings? · No0.3400.000$0.00−$34.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-29 11:09Will Williams (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.47$9.40
10-29 10:45Will Ilia Topuria fight Paddy Pimblett next?SELL0.6$12.00
10-29 10:25Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.68$34.00
10-29 10:16Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-06 House election by 60%-65%?SELL0.25$5.00
10-29 10:01Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.64$23.75
10-29 09:58Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings?SELL0.1939317449$24.66
10-29 09:58Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?SELL0.79$15.80
10-29 09:58Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-20 House election by 25%-30%?SELL0.31$6.20
10-29 09:53Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?SELL0.7918985$15.84
10-29 09:46Will PP win the most seats in the Balearic Islands in the 2026 Spanish general election?SELL0.76$15.20
10-29 09:46Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?SELL0.43$8.60
10-29 09:46Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?SELL0.77$15.40
10-29 09:46Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?SELL0.66$13.20
10-29 09:46Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?SELL0.1$2.00