Xiaoqiu2
0xd6a48e2287224346e0b13265c6bf9b46680f823f
- Realised P&L
- $-593.77
- Volume
- $180.4k
- Markets traded
- 654
- Open portfolio
- $277.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded654
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 October 5-11? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $121.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on October 11? · No | 0.999 | 0.997 | $93.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on October 11? · No | 0.999 | 0.998 | $61.92 | −$0.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.26at 0.871Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on March 27?
- +$26.74at 0.789Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 30?
- +$12.68at 0.957Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 23?
- +$12.02at 0.714Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
- +$10.59at 0.981Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 00:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.999 | $122.00 |
| 10-09 23:54 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on October 11? | BUY | 0.9987245445 | $62.00 |
| 10-09 23:54 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on October 11? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 10-07 02:37 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on October 8? | BUY | 0.9987980046 | $277.00 |
| 09-29 23:31 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.9959637339 | $276.00 |
| 09-27 23:29 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $230.00 |
| 09-27 23:29 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.999 | $46.00 |
| 09-22 23:30 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.9908656039 | $161.00 |
| 09-20 23:25 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or higher on September 22? | BUY | 0.998301188 | $210.00 |
| 09-19 23:32 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.9791893476 | $269.00 |
| 09-19 00:39 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.9861654898 | $265.00 |
| 09-17 00:03 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.9983564927 | $265.00 |
| 09-14 23:51 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on September 16? | BUY | 0.9986677887 | $260.00 |
| 09-13 23:32 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on September 14? | BUY | 0.999 | $264.00 |
| 09-10 23:17 | Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on September 11? | BUY | 0.9899999987 | $262.00 |