Marco-Rubio
0xd67ba35aef659c872377a5ac2becb7ada7f85780
- Realised P&L
- $76.2k
- Volume
- $6.34M
- Markets traded
- 1,235
- Open portfolio
- $21.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,235
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration28.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · No | 0.898 | 0.965 | $9.6k | +$663.07 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.826 | 0.971 | $4.9k | +$725.00 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.981 | $4.4k | +$365.55 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.135 | $1.3k | −$50.00 |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.968 | $967.50 | +$97.50 |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 · Yes | 0.343 | 0.080 | $360.72 | −$1.2k |
| Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.624 | 0.525 | $106.87 | −$20.24 |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.045 | $81.31 | −$55.34 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.100 | $44.42 | −$2.01 |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 22? · Yes | 0.298 | 0.415 | $10.79 | +$3.05 |
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 28? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.330 | $1.65 | +$0.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.2kat 0.408Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
- +$4.1kat 0.766Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
- +$3.7kat 0.120US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
- +$3.6kat 0.294Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?
- +$3.4kat 0.189US strikes Iraq by March 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 23:59 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.62 | $620.00 |
| 10-27 01:56 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.93 | $823.37 |
| 10-23 20:46 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.985 | $12.08 |
| 10-23 20:02 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $1.7k |
| 10-23 20:02 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $6.64 |
| 10-23 20:01 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2065801954 | $175.11 |
| 10-23 20:01 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $178.93 |
| 10-23 17:37 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.4628791491 | $504.82 |
| 10-23 11:29 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | SELL | 0.93 | $159.86 |
| 10-22 17:05 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $781.03 |
| 10-21 22:02 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | BUY | 0.8326091333 | $1.2k |
| 10-21 21:06 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | BUY | 0.7918281443 | $218.21 |
| 10-21 20:36 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.88599666 | $1.3k |
| 10-21 20:36 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.88597659 | $1.8k |
| 10-21 20:32 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22? | BUY | 0.865995005 | $3.5k |