akrnow
0xd66ecfa79c57d834247f2af295380e2a916bc9ac
- Realised P&L
- $2.04
- Volume
- $22.6k
- Markets traded
- 113
- Open portfolio
- $5.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded113
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 28? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.945 | $4.72 | +$0.13 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 28? · No | 0.080 | 0.055 | $0.27 | −$0.12 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on September 29? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.011 | $0.06 | −$0.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$309.96at 0.494Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$19.65at 0.672Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 25?
- +$16.50at 0.670Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25?
- +$15.79at 0.760Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September?
- +$15.40at 0.919Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 18:07 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 19? | BUY | 0.46 | $2.30 |
| 09-16 16:15 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on September 16? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.01 |
| 09-07 00:20 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on September 7? | BUY | 0.6 | $3.00 |
| 07-29 19:02 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 30? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.60 |
| 07-28 23:12 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 29? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 07-26 16:36 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 27? | BUY | 0.32412 | $1.62 |
| 07-23 16:36 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 24? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 07-21 23:46 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 22? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.25 |
| 07-20 19:19 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 21? | BUY | 0.46 | $2.30 |
| 07-20 18:06 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 21? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 07-15 21:54 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 16? | BUY | 0.732 | $3.66 |
| 07-15 21:48 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 16? | BUY | 0.737 | $3.69 |
| 07-14 19:45 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 15? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 07-14 19:43 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 15? | BUY | 0.69 | $3.45 |
| 07-13 16:35 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 14? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.20 |