0xd66da0c713741ce6872e93aabeb7591c705e0884
0xd66da0c713741ce6872e93aabeb7591c705e0884
- Realised P&L
- $272.23
- Volume
- $22.4k
- Markets traded
- 367
- Open portfolio
- $4.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded367
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.050 | $2.20 | −$5.65 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.006 | $0.80 | −$7.09 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on October 2? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.060 | $0.54 | −$0.62 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 1? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.003 | $0.43 | −$5.53 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C or below on October 1? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.002 | $0.07 | −$0.46 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$89.72at 0.067Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 25?
- +$77.03at 0.175Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31?
- +$70.70at 0.055Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?
- +$49.69at 0.091Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?
- +$42.61at 0.051Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 17?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 17:35 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.1299999989 | $1.16 |
| 09-30 16:01 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.0430188679 | $1.14 |
| 09-30 16:01 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.14 |
| 09-30 15:43 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.0341583268 | $1.14 |
| 09-30 15:43 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.0469019995 | $1.14 |
| 09-30 15:43 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.0810320265 | $2.53 |
| 09-30 15:41 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C or below on October 1? | BUY | 0.018220035 | $0.42 |
| 09-30 15:31 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.0236547541 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 15:31 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.0766666667 | $1.15 |
| 09-30 15:31 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.1799999957 | $6.68 |
| 09-30 15:23 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.1699999985 | $1.17 |
| 09-30 14:58 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.0108987112 | $1.14 |
| 09-30 14:08 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on September 30? | SELL | 0.977632538 | $45.07 |
| 09-29 20:06 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.1399999879 | $1.16 |
| 09-29 18:11 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 30? | BUY | 0.1399999976 | $1.17 |