frenew
0xd66196189fee25e395d55dcc966cdfc27e0d2750
- Realised P&L
- $5.8k
- Volume
- $970.5k
- Markets traded
- 1,901
- Open portfolio
- $691.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,901
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration39.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 5? · No | 0.823 | 0.915 | $269.82 | +$27.17 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 5? · Yes | 0.144 | 0.155 | $155.60 | +$10.77 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 6? · Yes | 0.144 | 0.135 | $135.17 | −$9.27 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 6? · No | 0.661 | 0.655 | $131.00 | −$1.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.1kat 0.214Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 17?
- +$1.5kat 0.326Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 7?
- +$1.4kat 0.426Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 3?
- +$1.2kat 0.286Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15?
- +$960.04at 0.166Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 17:20 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1680890608 | $35.63 |
| 08-04 17:11 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.14 | $11.08 |
| 08-04 17:09 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.14 | $8.14 |
| 08-04 17:08 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.14 | $8.14 |
| 08-04 17:08 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 6? | BUY | 0.14 | $11.08 |
| 08-04 17:05 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.16 | $32.00 |
| 08-04 16:28 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1304376035 | $77.20 |
| 08-04 15:46 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.02 | $5.33 |
| 08-04 15:39 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.05 | $8.33 |
| 08-04 15:39 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 08-04 15:13 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.1377131694 | $5.99 |
| 08-04 15:00 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.3327579867 | $14.48 |
| 08-04 14:38 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.6235005 | $124.70 |
| 08-04 14:36 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.01 | $5.99 |
| 08-04 14:36 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 5? | SELL | 0.0897643676 | $28.72 |