PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

plafa.-9

0xd6613d91c0caf9687c77edd99fb86c41246f87c6

Realised P&L
$-1.8k
Volume
$56.8k
Markets traded
407
Open portfolio
$24.32

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded407
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration61.9% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republican Party win the OH-01 House seat? · No0.8970.951$4.12+$0.23
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Wisconsin in the 2026 midterm elections? · No0.7700.765$3.50−$0.02
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 9%-12%? · No0.7500.800$2.56+$0.16
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Attorney General election? · No0.5100.405$1.96−$0.51
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.7300.685$1.82−$0.12
Will the Republican Party win the PA-07 House seat? · No0.7900.880$1.76+$0.18
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? · Yes0.3500.250$1.20−$0.48
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat? · Yes0.3800.595$1.02+$0.37
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 6%-9%? · No0.8600.831$1.00−$0.03
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-13 House election by 40%-45%? · No0.8400.950$0.96+$0.11
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming Senate election by 45%-50%? · No0.8700.916$0.92+$0.05
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election by 6%-9%? · Yes0.1600.235$0.84+$0.27
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 10%-15%? · Yes0.2700.205$0.63−$0.20
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-37 House election by 65%-70%? · Yes0.2700.210$0.58−$0.17
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? · No0.4600.470$0.47+$0.01

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-29 16:59Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 40%-45%?SELL0.023$1.40
10-29 16:57Will Republicans win 10–11% of the Black vote?SELL0.6$4.80
10-29 16:57Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026?SELL0.09$0.99
10-29 16:57Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 ME-01 House election by 40%-45%?SELL0.052$3.12
10-29 16:57Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New York gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?SELL0.73$12.41
10-29 16:57Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Massachusetts be between 2,650,000 and 2,800,000?SELL0.72$38.88
10-29 16:57Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?SELL0.68$81.60
10-29 16:57Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027?SELL0.2$23.80
10-29 16:57Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?SELL0.68$68.00
10-29 00:13Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?SELL0.5076851852$54.83
10-28 23:42Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?SELL0.22$1.10
10-28 22:55Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?SELL0.3529166667$42.35
10-28 21:05Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?SELL0.3693333333$44.32
10-28 20:50Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?SELL0.4$48.00
10-28 18:51Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?SELL0.54575$65.49