scenique
0xd650372f6a164c5912fea8ca9eb421e9047e003d
- Realised P&L
- $-82.31
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $19.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration98.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)27.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.385 | $19.25 | −$0.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.30at 0.110Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- +$0.32at 0.450Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
- +$0.02at 0.996Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 7?
- +$-0.12at 0.180Amazon matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
- +$-0.25at 0.450Will “Dandelion” by Ella Langley win Album of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 13:52 | Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? | SELL | 0.5097222222 | $18.35 |
| 09-22 07:55 | Will “Dandelion” by Ella Langley win Album of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards? | SELL | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 09-22 02:19 | Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? | SELL | 0.53 | $13.25 |
| 09-22 02:13 | Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? | SELL | 0.45 | $10.94 |
| 09-18 15:00 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on September 18? | SELL | 0.4107391304 | $18.89 |
| 09-18 14:38 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.54 | $5.40 |
| 09-18 14:36 | Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.54 | $2.70 |
| 09-18 05:40 | Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? | SELL | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 09-18 01:55 | Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.38 | $19.00 |
| 09-16 16:01 | Amazon matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.60 |
| 09-15 14:48 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $5.50 |
| 09-12 16:35 | Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? | SELL | 0.53 | $5.30 |
| 09-12 16:34 | Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? | SELL | 0.54 | $5.40 |
| 09-07 05:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 7? | BUY | 0.996 | $5.00 |
| 09-03 07:21 | AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $13.51 |