uprightuser
0xd64e1a97d46f2ba860a56470ac6f47e5bcda5516
- Realised P&L
- $-42.9k
- Volume
- $12.05M
- Markets traded
- 386
- Open portfolio
- $38.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded386
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.3kat 0.649EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$13.0kat 0.807Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$11.5kat 0.869France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
- +$9.8kat 0.909Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?
- +$9.5kat 0.534Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-29 22:44 | Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.023 | $1.9k |
| 04-29 02:35 | Will Jason Corley be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 04-29 02:34 | Will Donald May be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 04-21 21:59 | USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.16 | $9.30 |
| 04-18 00:55 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.97 | $2.2k |
| 04-10 02:25 | Will Matthew Smith be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.62 |
| 03-31 04:04 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.971 | $3.4k |
| 03-31 03:36 | Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win <25 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election? | BUY | 0.999 | $171.27 |
| 03-31 03:36 | Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 35-39 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election? | BUY | 0.999 | $348.66 |
| 03-31 03:35 | Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 40+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election? | BUY | 0.998 | $482.96 |
| 03-31 01:18 | France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.996 | $4.2k |
| 03-27 04:23 | Starmer out by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.6k |
| 03-26 02:39 | EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.46 | $154.78 |
| 03-26 01:44 | US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.979605918 | $3.1k |
| 03-25 07:36 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $6.7k |